Consider the following statements about testing a null hypothesis (H₀): 1. H₀ is the hypothesis that is actually put to the test in a test of significance. 2. If H₀ is not rejected, the study has proved that H₀ is true. 3. A p-value of .03 means that there is a 3 per cent probability that H₀ is true. 4. The level of significance is fixed before the data are examined. How many of the statements given above are correct?
- (a) Only two
- (b) Only one
- (c) Only three
- (d) All four
Statements 1 and 4 are correct. H₀, the hypothesis of no difference or no relationship, is the one actually tested; the research hypothesis H₁ is supported only indirectly, when H₀ is rejected (IGNOU MPC-006 Block 1 Unit 3, §3.6). The level of significance α is the Type I risk the researcher agrees to accept, and it is fixed before the data are seen, so that the data cannot choose their own criterion. Statement 2 is wrong: failing to reject H₀ means only that the evidence was not strong enough; it does not prove H₀ true, which is why careful texts say 'retained' or 'not rejected' rather than 'accepted'. Statement 3 is wrong: the p-value is the probability of a result at least as extreme as the one obtained, calculated on the assumption that H₀ is true; it is not the probability that H₀ is true. (b) keeps only one of the two correct statements. (c) and (d) let in statement 2 or 3, or both, the two misreadings of a significance test that examiners plant most often.